Driven by the sharp rise in raw material prices, chocolate products everywhere have inevitably been subjected to price adjustment fluctuations. In Guangzhou, a café specializing in chocolate had put up a notice informing customers that from May 1st, the price of chocolate products in the store would be adjusted. One of the reasons is the substantial increase in raw material prices.

Western-style pastry shops are also deeply troubled, and dessert shops reliant on chocolate are facing similar challenges. For example, in late April, a bakery in Xiamen announced on social media that due to a "chocolate shortage", products containing chocolate ingredients would have to undergo a re-planning of production and pricing. Behind the price adjustment is a severe shortage of global cocoa bean production, which is caused not only by the impacts of climate change but also by the spread of diseases.

Thus, it is evident that cocoa beans are a key raw material for chocolate production. Over the past few decades, the price of cocoa beans has been relatively stable, but in the past year, the price has soared to unprecedented levels, with the price in April this year being double that of 1976.

This chocolate shortage confuses many. Climate change is not an overnight phenomenon, so why has it only recently had a significant impact on the cocoa industry? In the face of supply shortages, is it feasible to simply solve the problem by planting more cocoa trees?

The production process of cocoa beans requires the processing of cocoa fruits through fermentation, drying, and other techniques in the growing regions, after which these processed goods are sold to chocolate factories, turning into familiar food industry products like cocoa powder and chocolate. However, the continuous rise in cocoa prices has put enormous pressure on downstream businesses. For instance, some cocoa processing enterprises in West Africa are unable to operate normally due to the high cost of procurement or insufficient quantities. Even internationally renowned brands such as Nestlé, Mars, and Hershey are feeling unprecedented pressure in this supply crisis, with some brands trying to deal with cost challenges by reducing product sizes or altering ingredients.

Cocoa trees require very demanding environmental conditions to grow, with strict requirements for temperature differences and humidity, and cannot be directly exposed to sunlight or planted in overly rough mountainous areas. The world's main cocoa tree planting regions are concentrated within 20 degrees north and south of the equator, with the majority of production centered in the West African countries of Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. This means that nearly six out of every ten cocoa beans come from this region.

Cocoa trees are extremely sensitive to the environment and climate change. In recent years, the weather patterns in West Africa have become unpredictable, often experiencing extreme weather events. In the last half of last year, the weather in West Africa fluctuated between two extremes—drought and flood. The El Niño phenomenon caused torrential rains in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire in December 2023, resulting in severe flooding of local cocoa farms.

Then, in February of this year, West Africa faced severe drought, with temperatures at times exceeding 40℃. While everyone was looking forward to the rainy season, a second wave of high temperatures struck in early April, posing a stern challenge to the growth of cocoa trees. The drought caused the region's agriculture to suffer from the so-called "devil hot winds," and the transition to the wet season brought humid conditions that triggered a variety of cocoa diseases.

Heavy rainfall creating high humidity environments is particularly conducive to the spread of black pod disease. This disease, caused by a fungus, has the potential to destroy all cocoa crops within a season. Subsequent extreme high temperatures can lead to an even more troublesome disease—swollen shoot disease. This disease can reduce the yield of cocoa trees by a quarter in the first year and may further halve in the second year. Despite attempts by Ghanaian growers to eradicate swollen shoot disease over the past century, little progress has been made. Currently, a more effective solution is to cut down the diseased cocoa trees and the neighboring trees. According to the Ghana Cocoa Board, in recent years, swollen shoot disease has led to the loss of over 500,000 acres of cocoa farmland.

The International Cocoa Organization predicts that this year's global cocoa production will be around 4.45 million tons, a decline of 10.9% from the previous quarter. With the forecast for 2024, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana are facing their third consecutive year of crop shortfall, causing the market supply gap to widen by five times. Such an increase means that the global cocoa market supply pressure continues to rise, and the market supply and demand relationship is becoming increasingly tense.

Cocoa is a pillar industry in Ghana, accounting for about 30% of the country's export earnings and providing jobs for approximately 800,000 Ghanaian farmers. However, when the price of cocoa beans rises, it does not mean that cocoa farmers can benefit from it. Especially in Ghana, farmers do not have the right to sell their cocoa beans to cooperatives or private buyers; they can only sell them to the national cocoa board, which is then responsible for selling them on the global market. The cocoa board claims that this policy can ensure future cocoa supply, protect farmers from price volatility, and maintain market stability.

Every year before the cocoa harvest season, the Ghana Cocoa Board sets a fixed purchase price. Although the purchase price has been increased by 60% this year due to poor yields, increased to 33,120 Ghanaian cedis (about 16,882 yuan), this price is still far below the international market price of 60,000 to 70,000 yuan per ton of cocoa. To make matters worse, the rise in the uniform purchase price often does not keep up with the speed of production decline. An older Ghanaian farmer revealed to the media that, in good cocoa harvest years, each person in his family could collect ten bags of cocoa beans, but this year, they could not even make up three bags per person. At this year's purchase price, a 64-kilogram bag of cocoa beans sells for about 1,055 yuan.

To combat environmentally harmful production activities, the EU has passed a new regulation. According to this regulation, chocolate manufacturing enterprises must prove that their supply chains do not involve deforestation. Otherwise, their products will be prohibited from entering the EU market. Should they violate this provision, companies will face fines of up to 4% of their turnover in the EU market.

As a climate change negotiator from Ghana, Ador has shown the world the severe consequences of climate change through his own experiences. He recalls a childhood spent in the countryside amidst woven fields of plants and fluttering butterflies, where children climbed trees to pick oranges after school. However, in just a decade, these beautiful scenes have disappeared, with fertile land becoming barren, streams drying up, and biodiversity being destroyed.

In a UN panel discussion, Ador emphasized, "The impacts of climate change are not limited to Africa but extend to all of humanity. We must take action now, and we cannot refrain from taking action just because the changes are small, nor can we wait for nature to submit to human arrogance."