Despite a certain degree of decline in the price of durian at present, this is only a temporary phenomenon. The production scale of domestic durian does not have enough strength to fundamentally affect the market trend. Recently in Guangxi, some consumers have traveled all over and have not been able to find the so-called "five durians for 100 yuan" at ultra-low prices. On the contrary, at Guangxi's largest fruit wholesale market—Nanning Haigexing International Logistics Wholesale Center, the prices are still marked at 19.8 yuan/kg, 16.8 yuan/kg, or even 58 yuan each, which is far from the previously rumored "cabbage price".

In fact, the so-called ultra-low price of 10 yuan per kilogram of durian is almost impossible to find. The common selling price of durian is mostly around 20 yuan per kilogram. Those "ultra-low priced" durians are usually inferior quality products, such as those that are smaller in size, overly ripe, or damaged during transportation. It is understood that the price of durian in the retail market, such as fruit shops and supermarkets, is generally higher than 25 yuan per kilogram.

Industry experts point out that although the price of durian has seen some fluctuations and shows a downward trend recently, this does not mean that the decrease in durian prices is closely related to the production of domestic durian. Just like the price changes experienced by the Sunshine Rose fruit, although the domestic Sunshine Rose led to a significant reduction in prices, for durian, the domestic varieties are still far from reaching a scale that can compete with imported varieties.

Some industry insiders analyzed that the trend of durian prices is not directly related to the domestic production of durian. Although domestic durian is emerging and its production is expected to significantly increase in the future, at least in the short term, it is unlikely to be a key factor in shaking durian market prices. Durian, as a popular "net celebrity fruit," always triggers rapid attention and discussion online with its price changes. However, it seems that although domestic durian has aroused attention, it still needs time to become a real market decider.

In the 1950s to the 1980s, Hainan began attempting to grow durians in places like Baoting and Lingshui, taking advantage of its natural tropical climate. Although the initial survival rate was not ideal and the plants rarely flowered and fruited, the cultivation attempts never ceased. From the late 1990s to the beginning of the 21st century, more private individuals introduced durian varieties from Thailand, Vietnam, and other places, with the scale of planting and survival rates continuously increasing. Since 2018, the cultivation of Hainan durian has entered a large-scale phase.

According to the news from the Agriculture and Rural Affairs Bureau of Sanya City, Sanya introduced new durian varieties five years ago and, after careful cultivation and domestication, these durian varieties started to fruit on a large scale in 2023. On a planting area of 1,400 acres, the yield can be as high as 3,500 kilograms per acre, and the projected income per acre is expected to reach 100,000 yuan. Today, Hainan has about 40,000 acres of durian planting area, mainly distributed south of the 18-degree northern latitude, such as Lingshui, Wanning, Baoting, Sanya, and other regions, with varieties like Musang King, Golden Pillow, and Black Thorn being the most common. The Hainan Academy of Agricultural Sciences estimates that this year, the output of domestic durians will exceed 250 tons, indicating that more domestic durians will appear on the market in the future.

However, even so, domestic durians are still niche products in the overall market. Due to the limited areas suitable for durian cultivation, considering factors such as climate, temperature, and humidity within China, only certain regions in Hainan and Mengla County in Xishuangbanna are relatively suitable for growing durians. According to estimates by expert Wang Xinyu, even if the entire suitable area is fully planted, the output is still less than 1% of last year's import volume. Therefore, even if these domestic durians are introduced to the market, their impact on market prices is negligible.

Industry insiders have reached a consensus on the market positioning of domestic durians: taking the high-end market route. Since domestic durians can mature on the tree, their quality is superior and meets the demands of the high-end consumer market. It is understood that Thai durians often use ripening agents, resulting in an inferior taste; while the Musang King variety from Malaysia is fully mature, what is sold in the Chinese market is usually frozen, so for those wanting to taste fresh, tree-ripened durian fruit, Hainan Province becomes the only choice. There is a significant difference in taste and quality between artificially ripened and tree-ripened durians, with an average sugar content difference of 8 to 13 degrees.

Despite the higher market price of domestic durians, with the Golden Pillow variety costing up to 60 RMB per jin, and Musang King as high as 100 RMB per jin, far exceeding imported varieties from Southeast Asia, the sales channels remain a major challenge for growers. Since domestic durians ripen naturally, this method leads to difficulties in harvesting large quantities at the same time, causing the entire ripening cycle to last one to two months, complicating sales and distribution.

Wang Xinyu vividly describes the process of durian harvesting. He believes that the quality advantage of Hainan durians lies in their natural maturity rather than the use of ripening agents. He explains that a higher production cost, which includes significant investments in water, fertilizers, and labor, goes hand in hand with this. To make better use of this advantage of Hainan durians, Mr. Wang plans to adopt a new online sales model. By selling in advance, consumers can place orders before the durians are ripe, ensuring that the ripe fruit can be quickly delivered to them. Although domestic durians are costly and expensive, their impact on the global durian market is still limited. Durian prices are mainly affected by the supply and demand of the producing market. For example, in 2023, China's imports of durians from Thailand exceeded 1.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 72.87%, valued at approximately 6.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 65.56%, with Thai durian varieties making up 65.15% of the total imports. This has pushed up the market price to a certain extent. Durian farmers from the eastern Thai province of Chanthaburi report that continuous high temperatures and the resulting drought have accelerated the growth cycle of durians, which has directly resulted in fruits not achieving their maximum and optimal quality, thereby affecting the overall market value. Under such circumstances, the local purchasing price of durians is indeed higher than the same period last year. For the domestic market, another factor leading to the decrease in durian prices is the oversupply of durians concentrated on the market. At the same time, failure to meet quality standards is also a reason for the decline in prices. Extreme weather conditions have forced farmers to harvest durians early to avoid over-ripening, which may result in some of the durians sold on the market being immature.

Generally speaking, durians with round and full shapes, more than four chambers of flesh, and a rich aroma tend to be of superior quality. However, failure to meet these qualities has forced wholesalers to sell at a loss, and even though high-quality durians still maintain high prices, they are rare. The widespread presence of low-quality durians has dragged down the overall market price level.

Currently, changes at the production level have not had a widespread impact on the retail and wholesale markets. This is because market prices are usually directly influenced by the quantity of goods available. When there is an overload of arrivals at a certain point in time, market conditions may become aberrant.

Sharp fluctuations in the price of durians are largely due to merchants needing to deal with inventory or selling off low-quality durians. When a new batch of high-quality durians arrives, prices quickly return to normal.

In recent years, the durian trade industry has attracted more and more new participants, some of whom lack strict quality control, which can lead to inferior products entering the market and thereby affecting durian prices.

The price of durian is not only influenced by the supply from producing regions and domestic demand, but intermediary wholesalers also adjust in the supply and demand relationship, adding to price uncertainty.

Researcher Li Wenjuan from the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences points out that major exporting countries for durians include Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia, and the competition among these countries is also a factor affecting durian prices.

Topic of the day: Have you tried durian this year? What was the price like? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.